Sage words of advice for the election campaign, n’est-ce pas, depending, of course, on its outcome, i.e. on whether or not the PQ gets its majority. we may just have to pick ourselves up, dust ourselves off, and start all over again.
Instead of trying to predict what we think will happen, let’s approach our prognostications vis-a-vis the post-election political situation in Quebec by stating that short of something of enormous consequence occurring between now and April 7th, Election Day, the following are NOT going to happen as a result of the election itself or as a consequence of the campaign leading up to same.
Number 1 thing that won’t happen: The Liberals will not win the next the election. The best they can hope for is to maintain the status quo that is as Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition to the minority PQ government.
Number 2 thing that won’t happen: The PQ will not lose the election. Marois will remain Premier but the question arises regarding the type of government her party will have in the aftermath of the upcoming vote: will she remain in a minority government position, shackled in her drive to promote her nationalist agenda founded in identity politics and funded by appeals to the basest of emotions amongst francophones and others not the least of which are their attempts to divide us – see Bills 14 and 60 – or will she get the majority government that she is proving that she deserves?
Even though Marois and her party’s agenda smells badly to some of the population of this province, it does seem to resonate more healthily among our majority francophone brothers and sisters and I struggled to get those two descriptors down on paper because brothers and sisters aren’t usually so closed off to each other nor do they feel as disrespectful or disrespected on sight as they are starting to as far as we are concerned, anyway. The bottom line: Francophones favour Bill 60, the Quebec Chartre des valeurs by a slim margin, but a margin nonetheless, and when siblings do not get along, then you better watch out.
Finally, the Number 3 thing that won’t happen is that Francois Legault’s CAQ (Coalition Avenir Quebec) will not win the election. There are three possible positions for this party to find itself in on the morning of April 8th next:
A) Status quo meaning that CAQ has a solid hold on third place both in terms of percentage of the popular vote as well as in terms of the number of seats it holds. This status quo scenario is just that – Marois forms a minority government with the Liberals led by Couillard being the Official Opposition.
B) CAQ and Liberals switch places within the context of a minority PQ government which means that the CAQ gains Official Opposition status with the Liberals slipping to third place.
C) Lastly, the CAQ could find itself in the presence of a Parti Quebecois MAJORITY government either in Opposition or as a third party.
For sure there are other possible scenarios for the way things may look when Quebec goes to bed on the night of April 7th which I present below but these are far out in left field as fas as their being “legitimate” possibilities is concerned.
1) The PQ loses the election; either the CAQ or the Liberals form a minority government with the PQ as the Official Opposition or the winning party – Liberals or the CAQ – forms a majority government with the PQ in Opposition.
2) Same scenario as above as except with one of the other parties forming a majority or a minority government with the PQ finishing an extremely disappointing third.
3) All of our scenarios leave out the possibility of an excellent showing by one or both of the other separatist parties – the Option Nationale or the Francois David-led Quebec Solidaire – let’s deal with the consequences of this most unlikely course-of-events which would likely involve a “coalition” of some kind in the event that this type of unforeseen scenario does happen to unfold.
Enjoy the music.